Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Patriots Week 1 - Final Grades

Is it presumptuous or even appropriate to call a game-winning drive in the season opener a "Championship Drive"?

No matter what you call it, the New England Patriots showed the football world - and themselves - that no matter how badly things are going, this 2013 version of the dynastic fellows from Foxborough are never out of a game...

...and, yes, it was against the Buffalo Bills with their rookie quarterback and a banged up secondary, but that last drive could have been against the best defense in the NFL and it wouldn't have mattered - Tom Brady found his rhythm and put on a display of accuracy that stunned even the most grizzled of observers, fitting the football squarely right where it needed to be every time.

But when he throws the ball like that, there has to be someone with intense concentration and little regard for their own safety, and that's exactly what Danny Amendola provided - and along with the powerful running of Shane Vereen, the Patriots ripped this game away from the Bills.

The Patriots defense kept them in the game, giving up just two scores and only one sustained drive, and if you take away while the two turnovers by the offense on promising drives in the first half and a Brady fumble just inches from the goal line in the second half, the offense really wasn't as limited as they made it seem with their miscues...

...to the point that what should have been a blowout for the Patriots turned into scrambling for their lives, finally finishing a drive that resulted in a Stephen Gostkowski game-winning field goal with just 5 seconds remaining in the game.

That said, we now turn our attention to the New York Jets, whom the Patriots get on a very short week - but first, a review of what the Patriots did right, and what went wrong, and what the team needs to do to avoid the same nail-biting anxiety that they and their fans suffered through in the win against Buffalo.

Passing Game: B

This isn't an "A" because of all of the missed connections, wasted plays and turnovers.  It's not an "F" because of that championship drive to win the game - but it is a "B" solely because this was a game that the Patriots needed to have to jump start their season.

Last season it was week 6 when the Patriots hosted the Jets, when the offense was a plodding entity, that suddenly awakened late in the game and put together a sustained drive to tie the game in regulation, and then to win it overtime - the awakening happened in Week 1 for this year's Patriots with Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman providing the veteran targets to Tom Brady....

...and that game-winning drive could be the catalyst for the entire season. And what was even more amazing is that Amendola did all of his damamge after tweaking a groin pull and leaving the game in severe pain in the second quarter, endearing himself to the faithful with toughness and focus.

The Amendola / Edelman connection is something that is going to be there all season, provided good health, and once tight end Rob Gronkowski returns from his health issues his presence will absorb much of the attention that teams can pay to the two veterans.  In fact, the lack of a hulking tight end had both phases of the Patriots grasping at straws for the first three quarters.

Zach Sudfeld was targeted once, stumbling just as Brady was releasing the ball and trying to field it when it got to him but he took a nasty shot from Buffalo corner Justin Rodgers who was able to cleanly field the ball at the same time for a nice interception, while Michael Hoomanawanui was targeted just twice, catching one ball for 5 yards.

Preseason rookie sensation Kenbrell Thompkins was manhandled by the Bills' secondary, being mugged several times as they tried to keep him from winning the battles coming off the line - and all of the attention seemed to get into his head and he just sort of disappeared.

The Bills' game plan was the same for anyone who plays New England - send everything you can spare and try to get in Brady's face - and they were initially successful, but Belichick made adjustment on the fly and at halftime and the leaky protection shored up and gave Brady reasonable protection the rest of the way.

Translation:  This team needs the intangibles that a big inline tight end brings to the field, if not Rob Gronkowski then the team needs to find another way to take the heat off of the other receivers.

Shane Vereen took a little off of them, but he's out for a few weeks with a broken wrist, so short of resigning Jake Ballard or Daniel Fells, they wait for Gronkowski's return and will probably utilize more of a speed look on the outside to try and open things up for Amendola and Edelman against the Jets - which means getting all of the rookies involved early and often.

Running Game: B

The power running game for the Patriots was on full display against a good front seven of the Bills, and just like the passing game, the grade is lowered due to Stevan Ridley and Brady putting the ball on the ground - Ridley's fumble resulting in a return for touchdown by Buffalo and Brady's on a 4th and goal inside the Bills' 1 yard line - both grievous errors.

But once the Patriots started holding onto the ball, the excellence of this area began to shine through, though really it was working even before that, just with nothing but numbers to show for it. The Patriots running game is sheer power, by default as they really have no one with the speed to challenge the edges - even with Vereen healthy, this is a smashmouth attack that can gain yards in chunks behind a superb offensive line.

Vereen played the entire game with a broken bone in his wrist, which borders on being "Mankins' tough", but he's now gone for at least the Jets' game on Thursday night.

Translation: Benching Ridley is fine with the steady work of Vereen behind him, but now that he isn't an option for the Jets' game, perhaps it's time to make an evaluation of the running backs as a whole.  LeGarrette Blount is a runner that gets stronger as the game goes on, but he needs the touches early on to get into the groove, while Bolden can't be counted on for anything more than spot duty, and both he and Ridley have  shown that holding onto the football is a persistant issue.

Leon Washington provides next to nothing in the running game and is a marginal talent as a third down back - so be looking for the Patriots to make a move to perhaps bring George Winn back into the fold, as he is a powerful runner and, better yet, very secure with the ball.


Pass Defense: B+

How many times did we hear Alfonzo Dennard's name on Sunday?  Right, exactly once when he showed incredible athleticism to make a play on a ball intended for Buffalo receiver Robert Woods.  Dennard shut down everything on his side and, coupled with Aqib Talib's presence on the other side, it forced Bills' quarterback E. J. Manuel to mostly underneath stuff, where running back Fred Jackson and tight end Scott Chandler exposed a continued weakness in the linebacking coverage.

The weak underneath coverage was significant, and helped to produce the two offensive touchdowns that the Patriots defense gave up on the afternoon.  With Jackson running wild on screens and wheels and Chandler challenging the seam, Manuel pulled off some veteran moves that exposed the thinned out depth at safety, looking off Steve Gregory who was supposed to be covering the deep zone behind Talib on the first score...

...but he bit on Manuel's look off to Chandler, who was actually well covered on this play by Dont'a Hightower, leaving Woods wide open for the first touchdown, then Manuel did the same thing to free safety Devin McCourty, who was a half step slow in helping slot corner Kyle Arrington on Stevie Johnson's fly route to start the second half.

Translation: The team can not go into a game against a team with a good group of receivers without more depth on the back end, and it is obvious that they'd rather not use Tavon Wilson in that role, so it is imperative to get rookie Duron Harmon back into the lineup.  He missed the Buffalo game with a hamstring, and although his is a raw prospect, his versatility, size and speed could have made all the difference on the two touchdowns that the Bills' scored.

The focus against the Bills was to contain Spiller and to keep Manuel in the pocket which, by design, sacrificed pass rushers who were busy setting the edge and funneling everything inside - and while it would be prudent for the Patriots to have the same game plan for Geno Smith on Thursday night, the Jets are not nearly the rushing team that Buffalo is, so the Pass rush should be more productive on Thursday night, particularly up the middle.


Run Defense: B+

This would have been an "A" had the run defense not forgotten that the Buffalo Bills have two excellent runners.  With the dangerous C. J. Spiller bottled up, the Bills turned to Fred Jackson and attacked the depth in the middle of the Patriots defensive line.

The linebackers filled well and the Patriots interior line had a great day, with Tommy Kelley, Vince Wilfork and Joe Vellano holding up well at the point of attack and Jerod Mayo hitting everything that got past them, also getting excellent run support by Kyle Arrington who forced a Spiller fumble that led to a Brady touchdown pass to Julian Edelman.

The lack of depth at tackle didn't seem to hurt New England against the Bills despite the excellence of their interior blockers.  Chandler Jones filled in as a three technique tackle and made a handful of stops at the line, and safety Steve Gregory played the part of nickle safety well, contributing to the notion that the team is better served being able to move him around and not locked into the back end, where he seems slow with diagnosing the play and taking angles to thrown balls.

Translation: The Patriots run defense was good last season, and it's picking up right where it left off in 2013.  The unit is capable of shutting down an opponent's running game, but the line doesn't have the depth to generate a pass rush as well against teams with truly a talented backfield, so it's a question of picking your poison.

Against the Jets, the ends and outside linebackers will look to set the edge and the interior of the line will aggressively seek penetration right up the middle, with someone like Brandon Spikes or Hightower taking advantage of double teams on Kelly and Wilfork to stonewall the run and to rush the quarterback.




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