Sunday, September 1, 2013

Patriots' get younger, bigger - but did they get better?

It takes something epic to push anything to do with Tim Tebow onto the back pages, but the New England Patriots and shock-jock coach Bill Belichick have managed to do just that.

Thompkins has taken Foxboro by storm
The stunning dismantling of the New England defensive line down to it's very core is the big story line coming out of Gillette Stadium on Saturday afternoon, and no one really knows what to make of it - but we can certainly guess.

To some, it signals the evolution of the defense back to more three man - or less - sets as linebackers are in abundance, while others are in full panic mode, and still others are curled up in the fetal position in a dark room.

And...whatever.  It does no good to tell an anxious person to calm down - it just makes them paranoid, so all we can do is let them burn themselves out with anxiety and allow them to gain confidence in this team in their own time and in their own way - which is cool, because despite what the anxious and paranoid feel, this is still a seriously dangerous team.

That doesn't mean that there aren't question marks, it simply means that that the team, as a whole, has gotten younger, bigger and more athletic - 13 rookies made this team, including six undrafted rookie free agents - and though there's always the learning curve associated with having as many rookies as there are on this team, there's also enough veteran leadership to keep things on an even keel.

So it's ok to stay on the bandwagon - but there's also plenty of room to get back on if you need to jump off for a while...

For those that stay on board, you'll see a defense so athletic and physical and violent that it will have even hard core football junkies taking notice - led by a group of linebackers that may be the best group assembled in the league, their versatility supporting a seamless segue between themselves, the line and the secondary, with enough athletes to run the most exotic of sub packages....

...and when the Patriots have the ball, you get to watch a group of young receivers grow into the work as the masterful Brady drives them to improve every snap.  You get to watch one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL open holes for a genuinely bruising running game and of course you get to watch Tom Brady run the offense to perfection.

This is a big team.  Huge.  When the cuts were made, it's as if each position had a tilt-a-whirl style measuring chart that read, you must be this tall to play this position for the Patriots.  Why, at defensive end alone the average of the four survivors of the roster purge average out at 6' 5" tall, and the three tackles nearly 6' 4" tall and a hefty 310 pounds.

But that's discussion for a later time, because what matters right now is that the Patriots stand at 51 players, and there's plenty of room and plenty of cap space available - so it goes without saying that they will go after an impact player or three to bind it all together...

...and hopefully they do it before fans start jumping off stuff taller than a bandwagon.

Quarterbacks (2):

Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett

It's a well-worn platitude, but absolutely true: Tom Brady remains the most dangerous weapon in the National Football League - and as long as he's under center, the Patriots always have a chance.

Many quarterbacks in their 14th season are all jacked up and teetering on the cusp of ineffectiveness, but behind one of the best offensive lines in the game and and with a powerful running game backing him up, Brady is as dangerous as ever, if not more so.

His receiving corps is completely retooled, and though he will be without all world tight end Rob Gronkowski for the first couple of weeks, he should have enough to work with to put up similar numbers to what he has the last couple of years...

...but the number that motivates him is 4, as in his fourth Lombardi trophy.  He already has more money than God and a life that most of us can only dream of, so he's playing solely for the love of the game - and even the haters have to respect that.

Bottom Line: Tim Tebow wasn't the answer to back up Brady, and Ryan Mallett didn't light the world on fire in the preseason, so depth at the position is lacking.  Here's hoping that Brady stays upright and healthy.

Running Backs (6):

Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
LeGarrette Blount
James Develin
Brandon Bolden
Leon Washington

Keeping six running backs is unheard of in the NFL, but closer examination of the individual skill sets breaks the group up a little bit.

Ridley and Blount are hammers and bring a devastating one-two punch to the Patriots' running game, while Vereen and Bolden are capable between the tackles and able pass catchers, but that's where conventional wisdom gets tossed out the window.

Vereen is a slashing back that will see more time in the pattern than sprinting through holes, and is a slick runner in the open field - and though he is labeled a third down back, he will see opportunities in the slot and split wide on just about any down and distance, taking a linebacker out of the box with him.  Once he beats his man off the line, he has sure hands and a nose for the end zone.

Develin is an H-back, and his skill set enabled Belichick to keep only three tight ends - he is a load in short yardage situations, has soft hands and some speed to take advantage of linebacker coverage underneath,  but his forte is blocking, and whether from the backfield or as an inline tight end, he ably leads the back through the hole.

Washington is a kick and punt returner who will sub in on third downs occasionally.

Bottom Line: A very solid and potentially dominant group. Bruising and versatile.

Receivers (6):

Danny Amendola
Kenbrell Thompkins
Aaron Dobson
Josh Boyce
Julian Edelman
Matthew Slater (ST)

Zero surprises with the retooled pass catching depth chart, though no one could have predicted the pecking order at the beginning of camp, when the team brought in many bigger receivers but ending up with just one - Dobson - over six feet tall.

Amendola proved to be as advertised, quickly gaining Brady's confidence, but it was Thompkins that took the Patriots - indeed, the entire NFL - by surprise.  The undrafted rookie has significant polish to his release and route running and caught just about everything Brady threw his way, which is an excellent way to make an impression on the greatest quarterback of all time.

Dobson is more of a project than his considerable college hype suggested and needs to be a lot more physical when disengaging, but still flashed plenty enough to gain the roster spot, while Boyce finally showed off his 4.34 speed in the preseason finale and will be used much like Vereen, in the slot, the flat and split wide.

Edelman is a known quantity and gained a roster spot on comfort level alone, but has proven to be very fragile and may be a candidate for release if the Patriots come across anything better on the waiver wire - while Slater is strictly a special teams player, but a perpetually excellent one.

Bottom Line: With Amendola and Thompkins, the Patriots have an excellent pair of wide outs, and with contributions from the depth, tight ends and backs, will be very productive.

Tight Ends (3):

Rob Gronkowski
Michael Hoomanawanui
Zach Sudfeld

The best news of all for the Patriots' offense was that Gronkowski avoided the PUP list and will start the season as a game-day scratch until he is properly conditioned - nothing need be said about the most dangerous tight end in the NFL, who was near or at the top of many statistical categories last season despite missing six games - truly impressive.

Hoomanawanui took a pay cut to remain with the team, and brings h-back type versatility to the field, as does undrafted rookie sensation Zach Sudfeld, who emerged out of virtually nowhere to seize the move tight end roster spot.

Both "Hooman" and "Studfeld" leave a bit to be desired as far as blocking is concerned, but offer other intangibles, particularly the 6' 7" Sudfeld, with his 4.7 speed and fluid route running.  He presents an intriguing target up the seam and in the red zone.

Bottom Line: Once Gronk returns, the team will use some two tight end sets, but don't have the big blocking guy to undertake too many of those in the interim.  Sudfeld will be used underneath and will challenge the seam, but that's all there is until Gronkowski returns, then it's a different story...

Offensive Linemen (8):

Nate Solder
Logan Mankins
Ryan Wendell

Dan Connolly
Sebastian Vollmer
Marcus Cannon
Will Svitek
Josh Kline

One of the best offensive lines in all of football returns intact.

During the preseason, the line took some heat for blocking miscues, but that was because the Patriots were forced to improvise at right guard while Connolly rehabbed his surgically repaired shoulder and Cannon dealt with injuries as well.

Cannon will remain the top backup for both tackle positions and a spot starter at right guard, while Svitek adds depth to the depth.  Kline was a long shot to make the roster but was solid in his opportunities and will back up Wendell at center and left guard Mankins, who has missed games the past couple of years after being invincible early in his career.

Vollmer was the player most affected by Svitek's struggles at guard, but with Connolly back in there, he and Solder form the best set of bookend tackles in the NFL.

Bottom Line: This unit will also miss having a big blocking tight end, but will manage.  These guys are good football players who also happen to be good brawlers despite what we saw in Detroit - they will open holes and protect Brady as well as always.

Specialists (3):

Stephen Gostkowski (K)
Ryan Allen (P)
Danny Aiken (LS)

Special teams are making folks in New England nervous.

Kicker Gostkowski struggled with accuracy in preseason and it remains to be seen how he and rookie punter Ryan Allen mesh.  Ryan beat out incumbent punter Zoltan Mesko and has epic leg strength, but Mesko was Gostkoski's holder on place kicks, so it may take a game or two before the snap, hold, kick routine becomes second nature.

The holding duties could also fall to Ryan Mallett, but the team needs to get that decision made quickly and stick with it.

Aiken was praised by Gostkowski this off season by saying that he put the ball in the holders hand so perfectly that all the holder has to do is catch and place - and the fat part of the ball is always right where it should be.

Gostkowski regularly booms kickoffs out of the end zone, but when he doesn't there is some trepidation when it comes to kick coverage - same with punt coverage, which is probably why Ryan beat out Mesko for the punting duties due to superior hang time, allowing the punt coverage team to position themselves better.

Bottom Line: The biggest question mark on the team.  The kick coverages haven't improved from last season and they are breaking in a new punter - plus Gostkowski hasn't exactly been automatic from outside of 40 yards, so there's plenty of work to be done.

Defensive Tackles (3):

Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Joe Vellano

This is where things start to get pretty interesting.

All preseason there was speculation that the Patriots were looking to go to more three man fronts due to the thin depth at defensive tackle, and the over-abundance of linebackers - and the Saturday deadline cuts pretty much confirmed that direction.

Wilfork is as steady as they come and can redirect or blow up a play before it even gets started, while Kelly has proven to be the penetrating interior rusher that the team needs to take advantage of the double teams that Wilfork commands.

Undrafted rookie Vellano beat out a gaggle of hopefuls for the honor to back up the tackles - he's short and stocky with a wide anchor and tough to move off the spot and does get some penetration - but that'sall she wrote as far as tackles.

Bottom Line: The Patriots are well aware that they need more depth.  With only 51 players currently on the roster, expect to see a few tackles in town for workouts very soon.  Excellent core to build on with Wilfork and Kelly, though.  A work in progress, but a decent player or two should be on the way.

Defensive Ends (4):

Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich

Michael Buchanan
Jake Bequette

The ranks were thinned by the roster cut down, but is augmented by an athletic and violent linebacking corps.

Jones and Ninkovich are the returning incumbents, but in wake of the thinning of the position and perhaps more three-man looks on the line, the unit is in flux.  Jones and Buchanan are long and strong and built for rushing the quarterback, while Ninkovich and Bequette are also adequate edge-setters.

This is where the linebacker depth melds into the line.  Athletes like Hightower and Collins are also accomplished rush ends , can set the edge and both have the bulk to stunt inside and pentrate into the interior of the line of scrimmage.  How the ends are deployed remains to be seen, but the possibilities are intriguing.

Bottom Line: Just as with the tackles, depth is needed.  There is plenty of athleticism and some more exotic sub-packages are probably in the offing.

Linebackers (6):

Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Dont'a Hightower

Dane Fletcher
Steve Beauharnais

The strength of the defense, and among the best group of 'backers in the NFL.

If the Patriots do indeed turn to more three man fronts, there are plenty of linebackers to go around, and more than enough versatility to make the treading very treacherous for an opposing offense.

In a standard 3-4, there are a few different variations of personnel that can used to offset whatever the opposition has on the field, but we know that the core of Mayo, Spikes and Hightower are about as solid as it gets - and if the team mixes it up with Collins manning either wing, or with Fletcher or Beauharnais joining Spikes in the middle...

...or maybe Ninkovich drops back, or Tavon Wilson or Duron Harmon comes up into the box - if they do it right they can dictate what the offense is able to do and funnel everything toward the middle of the defense, where the crazy suckers roam.

Bottom Line: Everything runs through the linebackers and if they meld properly with the line and incorporate the safeties properly, the prospects are indeed cause for optimism.

 Corners (5):

Aqib Talib
Alfonzo Dennard

Logan Ryan
Kyle Arrington
Marquice Cole

Unsettled because of the legal uncertainty of Dennard, the Patriots are between a rock and a hard place - because the timing of his Probation revocation hearing stinks.

So, a little preventive maintenance wouldn't hurt, as it may prevent scrambling to administer some damage control later.  Dennard is scheduled to be in court on Friday, a mere 48 hours before the Patriots play at Buffalo, so expect the Patriots to bring in a corner onto the practice squad, preferably a veteran, but at least someone at least vaguely familiar with the system...

...which could mean Justin Green unless he doesn't clear waivers - maybe even Sterling Moore who was cut by the Cowboys on Saturday.  In the interim, should Dennard have to miss any time, the team has to like what they have with Logan Ryan - and if Ryan can show the game to game improvement in the regular season that he did in the preseason, the Patriots have a genuine gem on their hands.

Arrington could play outside, but he shouldn't, as he is content to play inside technique and faster receivers run right past him, same with Cole - but they are both very good in the slot and both excellent in run support, Arrington in particular.

Bottom Line: Despite the uncertainty, the presence of Talib and the potential of Ryan to start the season makes this a much improved secondary than it was at this point last season.  Dennard and his attorney need to settle his legal issues as quickly as possible.

 Safeties (5):

Devin McCourty
Steve Gregory
Duron Harmon
Tavon Wilson
Nate Ebner

After all of the chatter about the safety positions in camp, the backenders look pretty much the same as last season, with one significant difference:  A new guy that might actually make an impact.

As it is with the corners, the safety positions benefit from having a top notch veteran at the free in former cornerback Devin McCourty and an adequate Steve Gregory at strong - and just the thought that Gregory is still the strong to start the season speaks to the difficulties that this unit had in camp.

Adrian Wilson went to the IR, Tavon Wilson hasn't made that fabled jump from his first to second year and Nate Ebner is a safety in name only as he is a core-four special teamer, leaving 3rd round draft pick Harmon to pick up the slack - and he showed enough in camp to think that he could be an integral part of this secondary.

Harmon played both positions in college and once he started to get a feel for the speed of the pro game, one could see his confidence grow - much the same as his Rutgers' teammate Ryan.

Bottom Line: No enforcer, but still a potentially better group than last season - it's going to take Harmon stepping up and Wilson contributing positively for that to be a reality.

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