Thursday, August 29, 2013

New England Patriots roster watch - Last chance

New England Patriots' coach Bill Belichick indicated in an early week presser that his 2013 roster is "about 80%" set, which means that he feels there are 11 roster spots still up for grabs - but does the release of cornerback Ras-I Dowling on Wednesday indicate the filling of one of those spots or does it make the selection process a little more complex?
Dobson has the chance to make grabs like this tonight

Questions like this make tonight's final preseason game against the New York Giants full of high brow intrigue, if not actual position battles for roster spots.

As do questions such as whether Tim Tebow has any shot at all of making the final 53, or is he being kept around to just to take a majority of snaps against the Giants while quarterbacks Tom Brady and Ryan Mallett take most of the night off?  What about the mystery surrounding the tight end position or the questions at safety?

Do the designated special teamers make the squad?  Questions, questions - and just as many answers as there are experts to ponder them:

Do the Patriots keep six corners or just five? The release of Ras-I Dowling on Wednesday has a noted impact on the potential depth chart in the secondary.  The feeling always was that if the oft-injured third year corner out of Virginia was healthy enough by the time the final preseason game rolled around on Thursday night, he would get one last shot to make the final roster - but now the entire secondary is a matter of intrigue...

...especially in light of Alfonzo Dennard's legal problems.  Dennard will probably not play against the Giants to get a little work in before the preseason ends, and if a Nebraska court decides to revoke his probation at a hearing next Friday, it leaves the Patriots woefully thin at corner, with only Aqib Talib, Kyle Arrington and Marquis Cole the only corners whom have taken an NFL snap.

Rookie free agents Justin Green and Stephon Morris will see significant playing time tonight along with 3rd round pick Logan Ryan in an effort to assess if depth will continue to be an issue.  Regardless of how the two rookie free agents play, look for Belichick to be diligently scanning the waiver wire on Saturday night in hopes of landing more experienced depth.

Safety in numbers?  Recent jabber has former Arizona Cardinals' safety Adrian Wilson on the outs in Foxboro, and second year back ender Tavon Wilson seems on his last legs as well - Belichick has to be disappointed in the depth of the secondary as a whole, but at safety in particular.

Both Wilsons will see extended playing time this evening, with the possibility of one of them being gone between now and Saturday - and with Belichick scrambling on Saturday night to find a veteran strong safety on the open market.

One potential saving grace for either Wilson is the question of whether whatever is on the bread lines after final cutdowns is an upgrade over either of them, but because with a focus on safeties in the NFL the past few seasons, there should be a lot of them out there, and only a few roster spots to be had.

Once again, the secondary looks to be a question mark - with good starting talent but questionable depth.  This can't be the situation that Belichick envisioned with just 10 days until the season opener.

Too many linebackers.  If there's one thing that the Patriots have an abundance of, it's linebackers - and with the starting trio of Mayo, Spikes and Hightower never in doubt and rookie second rounder Jamie Collins a lock, that leaves two spots open on the second level.

Dane Fletcher should have a pretty solid grip on one spot, so it's going to be a big night for Steve Beauharnais as he battles Mike Rivera and Jeff Tarpinian for what should be the final linebacker spot.

Depth at tackle an issue:  The Patriots have an solid base at defensive tackle with Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly, but also a significant dropoff after that, as the depth is all undrafted free agents in second year man Marcus Forston and rookie Joe Vellano.  Rookie Scott Vallone and waiver wire pick up Gilbert Pena are in the mix as well, but unless one of them blows it up against the Giants...

The Patriots use defensive ends all over the formation, including as undersized rush tackles - something that Jermaine Cunningham and Justin Francis did last season.  Cunningham likely won't play and is teetering on the edge of unemployment, but Francis is deemed safe while former Cleveland Brown Marcus Benard has wedged his way onto the roster with inspired play.

The starting ends are all set with Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones, and 7th round pick Michael Buchanan should make the roster as he's shown that he's not just the project that he was expected to be - while Jake Bequette has flashed nearly nothing in his second camp.

One thing to watch for tonight is the mix of Linebackers and defensive linemen, and whether Belichick runs more three man fronts - because even though the depth is suspect, the talent that makes the team is versatile to the point that the team could run either four or three.

Revolving door at right guard:  Will Svitek is not a guard, though he has filled in at right guard throughout the preseason - and the results have been predictable.  To be successful, Svitek needs to play on the edges where his athleticism and light feet can be put to better use.

That said, it's time to see what Luke Patterson and Matt Stankiewitch bring to the table - final cuts probably, one of them may be able to crack a practice squad spot with a strong showing tonight.  Incumbent Dan Connolly may play sparingly, as he has been limited by the team in coming back from offseason shoulder surgery, and he is locked into a roster spot, though it's not yet clear if it will be he or Marcus Cannon that will hold down the position in the regular season.

Either present an upgrade with their understanding of leverage and wide base anchoring.  Despite what we saw when the line was manhandled in Detroit, much of that was a limited scheme and the turnstile that was Svitek playing right guard.  The line as a whole is much better with Connolly or Cannon in that spot.

Will he or won't he?  That is, will Rob Gronkowski start the season on the 53 man roster or will he be relegated to the PUP?  The answer to that will determine whether Daniel Fells makes the roster.

Fells is in the unfortunate position of making too much money for what is essentially a third tight end, but if  Gronkowski ends up on the PUP list, Fells has an excellent chance of maintaining his spot from last season.  He will be featured quite a bit this evening to showcase his skills as one of the more intriguing potential final cuts in the NFL.

Pecking order:  With the six roster positions for receivers locked up, expect to see a lot of Josh Boyce and Aaron Dobson tonight, as the rookie draft picks are floating somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Particularly Boyce, whose speed hasn't translated to the field due to design.  We'll most likely see him deep often, particularly with Ryan Mallett on the field, as he attempts to show the coaching staff that he can gain separation from defensive backs.  In prior games, the team has gotten the ball to him in the flat to see if he can use that speed and elusiveness to pick up long gainers on the screen, but the plays have been blown up before he can get started.

Dobson hasn't shown much separation either, but does seem to have the confidence of Brady despite getting mauled underneath in the Lions' game.  Dobson will be working to fight off press coverage, something he couldn't do on the Brady interception in Detroit.

How many backs?  With all of the running backs having impressive showings in camp and in game action, it goes to figure that Ridley, Vereen, Blount and Bolden make the squad, with kick returner Leon Washington on the outside looking in.

Look for Washington to get 3rd down reps as he attempts to prove helpful in the backfield if called upon, but the name that keeps popping up as a sleeper candidate to stick is fullback James Develin - and it's not outside the realm of possibility that the big back supplants Washington and one of the tight end candidates as he has the size, soft hands and blocking ability to surface as an all-purpose H-back type player.

The team will also take another look at Cincinnati running back George Winn, but he's shown very little in his limited game reps.  He had the reputation in college of being the guy that no one wanted to tackle because he always initiated contact and steamrolled folks, but he hasn't shown that thus far in the preseason.  Tonight will be his final shot to at least audition for another team or the practice squad.

The big question:  There shouldn't be this much intrigue over a third string quarterback, but when that player is Tim Tebow, the situation seems to take on a life of it's own.

But when it comes down to it, Tebow will play tonight as insurance against either Brady or Mallett getting hurt, then will find himself on the waiver wire on Saturday night - and he is the perfect man for leading the audition team for the many backs and receivers that will not make the roster, given that the backs will be running with eight men stacked in the box and the receivers will have to make crazy adjustments to catch a pass.

How does Tebow make this team?  Quite simply, he needs to show off his deep ball accuracy.  He struggles with the short throws because his limited mechanics don't support that type of game, but when he can air it out deep, he's shown the knack for getting the ball where it needs to go - and if he can connect on a few longer throws, he just might open up the box for the backs, and a roster spot for himself.

It's a longshot, but that's always been Tebow's calling card...




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