What looked like an absolute monster at the start of the season has evolved into a cream puff of sorts, and as a result, the Panthers are sitting pretty in the NFC South at 6-3, just a game behind the New Orleans Saints for the division lead...
...and after dropping their first two games of the season, they've rattled off 6 wins in seven games, including the past five in a row by an average of 17 points - which is impressive.
Impressive, even when one looks at the bigger picture - where during their five game winning streak, blowout wins over the Vikings, Rams, Buccaneers and Falcons were followed up by a close win over the San Francisco 49ers - and with these teams sporting a combined record of 15-31, the Panthers did what they were supposed to do to them with their second ranked defense.
The fact is that the national media and many fans of both Carolina and New England are building the Panthers up to be something that they are not - at least not yet, though the win at San Francisco was a dominating performance on the part of the defense. But with games against the Patriots, Jets and New Orleans twice looming on the horizon, a more complete picture of the Panthers should start to emerge.
This is not to say that Carolina is not a good football team, just that other than their defensive front seven, they are very ordinary. The secondary is very average, the teams' ranking against the pass skewed by facing some of the most abysmal passing attacks on the planet - including four in the bottom third in the league and two of the bottom three.
Case in point, Niners' quarterback Colin Kaepernick passed for just 46 yards last Sunday - actually 91 yards before sack yardage was subtracted. Why? Because the 49ers came into the game dead last in passing offense so, as usual with their opponents, they were able to put pressure on the quarterback while setting the edge and funneling everything inside where the big guys could shut them down.
The result being Kaepernick running for his life as the Panthers' front seven - not having to worry about the run and going full tilt on the pass rush - relentlessly pursued him to the tune of six sacks and punched him in the teeth at least twice that many times...
...and that's where the challenge lies for Bill Belichick's offense on Monday night - a defensive front seven that is among the very best in all of football, to the point that they have been able to mask the deficiencies in the secondary - and, in fact, to help the secondary in that the corners don't have to hold their coverage long enough to worry about getting burned...
...though a secondary that becomes a ball hawking group, taking advantage of rushed throws from quarterbacks under duress to the tune of a league leading 13 interceptions and an inordinate number of pass breakups, helping corners Captain Munnerlyn, rookie Melvin White and old greybeard Drayton Florence to undercut routes.
And all of this made possible by breaking the will of the opposition's running game and forcing them to go to the air to try to move the ball, playing right into the hands of their violent pass rush.
Against the run, the Panthers are tops in the NFL - but mostly because their opposition gives up if they are not initially successful, focusing on trying to throw on the average secondary, who are in the nickle or dime - and in turn allows for the Panthers' pass rush to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, abusing the offensive line while they're at it.
The three teams that have beaten Carolina stayed with the run and were either balanced or run heavy, averaging thirty carries per game, but the teams that the Panthers have beaten average a minuscule eighteen - obviously, the Patriots would rather be balanced and get closer to thirty, which just happens to be their average for the season.
New England's offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has fallen into the abandoning-the-run trap on a couple of occasions this season against teams with truly strong run defenses, and always with disastrous results - so he has a baseline to work from, and with the quality and explosiveness of his running game and the ultimate diversity of the offense as a whole, staying balanced should result in the desired outcome...
...but if he falls into the trap once again, the offense will struggle again, like it did both games against the Jets, the entire game against the Bengals and the first half against the Dolphins - and with the Panthers' offense potentially a little more explosive than any of those other teams, the result could again be ruinous.
And McDaniels now has even more of a reason to stay with his running game as the long-awaited return of his speedy H-back Shane Vereen has come, and though the team has mentioned that they will integrate him back into the offense slowly, it has to be remembered that they said the same thing about tight end Rob Gronkowski when he returned to the lineup a couple of weeks ago...
...and while Vereen's return from a week 1 broken wrist doesn't hold quite the promise to the offense as Gronkowski's immediate impact did, he is still yet another weapon for Tom Brady to target as part of a unit that is rounding into form at just the right time - as always.
A quick inventory of those weapons puts the fear factor back into a defensive coordinator's heart: a receiving corps highlighted by rookie deep threat Aaron Dobson who is finding his stride after a slow start, Danny Amendola who may actually come into the game with Carolina healthy, with Julian Edelman, Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce all ready to fly - the entire unit buttressed by the enormous talent of man/child Rob Gronkowski...
...The running game headlined by the powerful explosive nature of Stevan Ridley, the shake-n-bake, speed and hands of Shane Vereen and the clock killing bulldozing of LeGarrette Blount, the top 10 rushing attack growing stronger by the game.
And though the Panthers' defensive line, featuring rookie tackles Kawaan Short and Star Lotulelei and edge rushers in Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy and Mario Addison - backed up on the second level by the likes of Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Chase Blackburn - are the second ranked run defense in the league, it also has to be remembered that they are the least run upon defense in the league as well, with only 195 attempts to date.
As far as yards per carry, they are ninth. Fact is that they can be run on, and with New England's eighth ranked rush offense...well, the point is that their are not impenetrable, and with all of the targets that New England can put on the field, it will be just as big a test for their defense as it is the Patriots' offense.
That said, this may be the biggest test thus far for the New England offensive line, a line that can be dominated in pass protection when not given the opportunity to run the ball to set up the play action - but it doesn't have to be that way.
The big uglies, tackles Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon, guards Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly and center Ryan Wendell have proven to be accomplished road graders in the running game and adequate in pass protection when the running game is working well enough for the play action to be effective.
Bottom line is that New England must run the ball, be it from the outset to set up the play action or after the passing game softens up the interior by forcing them to play in their sub packages - whichever way McDaniels choose to attack them, running the ball will be integral to the Patriots' success.
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