If there is one prescription for what ails the New England Patriots offense, it is running the football.
The Patriots offense has been very streaky, scoring what few points they have in small windows and, with the exception of the quick strike catch and run by Aaron Dobson against the Jets, there has been a significant element of the running game present in every score, which is something that the team has been able to do without the aid of the now mythical Rob Gronkowski opening holes...
...though Gronkowski's presence certainly would be a factor - not just in the running game, but also through the air and in the red zone, where he always draws a big crowd of defenders, opening teammates up elsewhere.
But, is Gronkowski playing or not? At this point it really doesn't matter because all of New England has become disenchanted with the "He said / She said" crap, all of the mud-slinging and finger pointing...
...so let's just approach this Sunday's nationally televised matchup with the undefeated New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium as if the All World tight end will not be in uniform, and just for the sake of everyone's mental health, let's assume that he'll just be back when we least expect him - and besides, this team can win without him.
That's right, it's just like quarterback Tom Brady said in his Monday press conference, “If he’s there, he’s there. If he’s not, he’s not. We’re going to try to go win anyway.”
So, the question looms, just how do the Patriots beat the Saints with all of their amazing and super-human athletes on offense? The answer is to keep those amazing and super-human athletes on the sideline.
Without a running game, the Patriots offensive linemen are like targets at a midway shooting gallery, all of the receivers are blanketed and, as a result, quarterback Tom Brady is a sitting duck and being hit on just about every drop back - and all you have to do is look at the vicious beating Brady took in the two games that the Patriots have logged under 100 yards rushing for proof of that...
...both ugly affairs that caused much chirping by both the media and the fan base about how bad Brady looks and about how the team needs a veteran receiver and about how porous the offensive line is in pass protection, when in reality it was poor play calling that negated where the Patriots are strong and played right into the strength of the opposing defenses.
Can it really be that simple?
Football in it's purest form begs for the running game. Establishing the run sets up every other thing that you want to do on offense, builds momentum for your offensive line and runs down and demoralizes the opposing defense - and the exact opposite occurs if you can't - or don't - establish the run, and then ram it down their throats...
...but the Patriots have the perfect opportunity not just to establish their running game this Sunday against the team that many consider the best team in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints, but to dictate the pace of the game with it as well - and it's mystifying that the Saints' opponents thus far haven't really tried to maintain the pace and the momentum once they've established it.
Early in the year it was the Falcons who gouged the Saints' from the right side, collecting 80 yards in just seven carries. The following week it was Tampa going for 129 off the right, then the Cardinals and Dolphins took turns violating the Saints from the left, each team ripping off over seven yards a pop off that side.
Last week the Bears managed seven yards a carry to the right, but no matter which side is working best, the one constant has been big yards right up the gut - still, each team lost by failing to capitalize on momentum built early in the contest
In light of last week's bungled play calling, Patriots' offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels discussed his desire to see the offense as a closer to balanced entity, rather than the 70/30 mix that doomed them to the loss at Cincinnati, a game they could have easily won had they stayed with the running game:
"Our intention is never to really get out of whack in terms of run/pass ratio on any of those things," he said in response to being grilled by the beat writers on Monday, "and certainly that’s something that I will always try to maintain a good balance on."
Prove it, Josh.
Give your line and your quarterback a break from the opposing pass rush not respecting the running game, pinning their ears back and going full throttle after Brady. Give your receivers the benefit on not getting mugged in coverage by defensive backs that know what's coming. Give Matt Patricia's defense a break by winning the time of possession battle rather than settling for 3, 4 or 5 and outs.
And for God's sake, move the chains. Stop wasting plays by throwing the ball down the field without having the run established - it leaves the team with one less play to pick up that first down.
This has been the issue for this season. It's bad enough to take all of the injuries, but when the play calling feeds right into the strength of the opposing defense, it's like rubbing salt into the wound.
Against Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Buffalo, the balance was there and so were the wins. Conversely, against the Jets and last week against the Bengals, the numbers were decidedly in favor of the passing game - which is odd when you consider that both of those contests were tight, defensive affairs where running the ball is essential for keeping the defense off the field and relatively fresh.
This week against New Orleans will not be a defensive struggle, unless the Patriots' defense can turn this game into one - and the offense can donate to that cause by rushing for obscene numbers, run the clock and limit how many possessions the Saints get - and convert on third down and in the red zone.
True to fundamental football, the Saints rotate players on defense to provide different looks, keep them fresh and to get all of their best athletes on the field proportionate to the moment.
Against the pass, New Orleans fields a young hungry pass rush up front mixed with veteran guile in the secondary, and with new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan calling the shots, the group can get after the quarterback - but are surprisingly soft against the run, giving up a bottom-feeding 5.4 yards per carry.
In the 3-4, the Saints' given base defense, Ryan brings it with mammoth rookie nose tackle John Jenkins, flanked by defensive ends Akiem Hicks and Cameron Jordan - backing them up on the second level with the likes of Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne at inside linebacker and with Parys Harralson and Junior Galette on the wings.
Nicknamed "Dancing Bear" for his huge frame and light feet, Jenkins is a monstrously big space eater that is closer to 400 pounds than 300, and is athletic as well - his girth alone an imposing task for the Patriots' offensive line to move, but when switching up to a four man line, Jenkins comes out in favor of veteran Broderick Bunkley, with Hicks moving to join him at tackle...
...turning loose Jordan from one edge and bringing Galette up from his outside backer spot to speed rush the quarterback. Galette is a tough assignment for Sebastian Vollmer given his elite speed from the edge and Jordan is a load for Solder on the other side. Ryan will also load up one side on occasion and blitz with their defensive backs - but this is a risk that has burned them a couple of times if the offensive line is able to pick it up.
New England has always been good on offense at taking advantage of the weak side during a blitz, but would rather avoid the scenario all together without a reliable safety valve for Brady to dump off to - and, of course, nothing counters the blitz like a strong running game, particularly with the Patriots being able to maximize their personnel at the line and audible into a running play.
The four man line of the Saints is a sub package that they are in quite a bit, and has been effective at disrupting the passing game, but are also susceptible to the run - so a little imagination and thinking outside the box by McDaniels wouldn't hurt, perhaps even a pass or two on early downs to make the Patriots' less predictable and to keep Ryan guessing...
...because where the most yards are going to come in the running game is against the speedy sub packages that have been effective against the pass, mostly due to the pass rush of Jordan and Galette, who have four and three sacks, respectively.
Keenan Lewis was a key offseason free agent pick up from Pittsburgh who instantly became the Saints' best cover corner, with excellent size and good speed. He will get the Patriots top receiving threat while leaving greybeard Jabari Greer to handle the opposite side.
Where the Patriots are going to be able to take advantage is throwing underneath, as always, but the Chicago Bears were able to expose safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Kenny Vaccaro over the top with play action - so everything that the Patriots do on offense comes back to running the ball.
Running the ball means dictating terms to the Saints' defense, it means being able to be the aggressors and to force Ryan into his base package to stop the run, drawing the safeties up into the box and opening up the intermediate routes that are the bread and butter of the Patriots' passing attack...
...and then when he adjusts to stop the pass with some sort of sub package or even overload one side on the blitz, the Patriots have the personnel at running back to burn them on the weak side on the ground or deep down the field.
It all starts with running the ball. It's football at it's most fundamental - anything less gets you Cincinnati last week and the Jets in week two, and nobody wants to see that again.
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