Seems that every team the New England Patriots have played so far in 2013 have at least one huge, monstrously talented wide receiver that can run the 40 in the blink of an eye and has hands like Fred Blitnikoff - and some teams have two...
...catching passes from quarterbacks like - well, let's see - there's Matty Ice, a couple of rookies and a lame duck, so the only truly established quarterback that has lined up against coach Bill Belichick's Patriots was last Sunday in Atlanta, when Matt Ryan waited until the game was presumably out of reach to start connecting with freakish twin cyborgs Julio Jones and Roddy White.
But before that he was throwing almost everything underneath to his backs and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, mostly because the Patriots' combination of Jack-in-the-Box cover corners had their big speedy pass catchers blanketed - and because the Patriots defensive line stayed disciplined and had the screen game sniffed out just about every time.
But New England couldn't solve the Falcons' banged up blocking scheme with Wilfork out of the picture and could get no push in their pass rush early, which allowed Gonzalez the opportunity to curl out into the pattern to the tune of nearly 150 yards and two touchdowns...
...so since this Sunday's opponent has two big athletic tight ends with top shelf speed and soft hands and a good pass blocking line does that mean that the Patriots are doomed to surrender 300 yards and four touchdowns to them?
That's up to the Cincinnati Bengals' offense and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden- and, of course, the Patriots' defense.
The Bengals offense is a more grinding attack than what the Patriots faced in Atlanta - big wide receivers, a couple of mammoth tight ends and backs that work well out of the backfield - but Andy Dalton is no Matty Ice, and apparently that makes Gruden nervous.
The Bengals may have the best collection of explosive talent in the NFL, but with Dalton's limited arm strength and accuracy down the field and to the intermediate sideline, Gruden has been forced to call conservative, predictable game plans and not coming close to utilizing the weapons that the team has at their disposal - and that's too bad, because those weapons are impressive.
Any discussion in regard to the Bengals' offense usually begins with wide receiver A. J. Green - but if the Bengals want to beat the Patriots, they have to learn from the Falcons' mistakes from last Sunday night - and from the Jets a few weeks ago - and run the ball right into the teeth of the Patriots' defensive line, and keep pounding it...
...because if the Patriots find a way to take away the intermediate passing game and the running game isn't producing, it forces Gruden to take chances down the field, which favors the New England secondary regardless of Green's presence.
Not that Dalton can't be effective throwing of his own free will if given a favorable set of circumstances, but if he's forced to do so, things could get out of hand for Cincinnati very quickly - so a premium must be placed on establishing the running game, regardless of early sacrifice - meaning that he needs rookie running back Giovani Bernard to step up in tandem with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing right up the middle to set up the Bengals' play action.
Problem is, Gruden seems to be hesitant to hand more responsibility to Bernard despite possessing a skill set vastly superior to incumbent Green-Ellis, preferring to use the rookie as a change of pace back to the Law Firm, when it should actually be a 50/50 split. Both are able in the passing game, though Green-Ellis is the superior pass protector.
In the running game, the Bengals own an average yards per carry that place them in the bottom third of the league, yet they still sport numbers that suggest a healthy pass to rush ratio of 60/40 - but this number is deceiving.
In one game, the 20-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and their terrible run defense, Cincinnati accrued over a third of their rushing attempts on the season - in their other three games, the Bengals have attempted more than 20 running plays just once, that being an 82 yard effort on 24 carries in the home win over Green Bay.
This isn't enough, particularly when they get it going to the right behind guard Kevin Zeiter and Pro Bowl right tackle Andre Smith for some five yards per carry, so it's a mystery as to why Gruden's predictable play calling doesn't include more off right guard - and it just so happens that this is exactly where the big void has been left on New England's defensive line by Wilfork's injury.
In attempts to the left side of the line, the results haven't been as steady as the combination of center Kyle Cook, left guard Clint Boling and left tackle Andrew Whitworth leave a bit to be desired in generating push into the second level for the backs, but are exceptional protecting Dalton's blind side - which bodes well for the Bengals no matter the scheme.
To this point, the entire offense is predicated on the short to intermediate passing game, playing to Dalton's strengths or, rather, steering clear of his deficiencies - which is arm strength and accuracy on the long ball, which is probably why you won't see a fastball into tight coverage from him...
...but what you will see in a heavy dose of tight ends challenging the seams and also teaming with Bernard in the flat and underneath, Green and his compliments in the receiving corps sneaking in behind the linebackers. This is how the Bengals' offense works, and it should be dominating defenses - but it hasn't been.
Regardless, after what Gruden witnessed from watching film of Gonzalez ripping the Patriots a new one last Sunday, he should be salivating with the thought that he has double the trouble that the Falcons laid on New England - and if he can get the running game going, that should open up the middle of the field for his twin towers.
That's what Gruden wants for his young quarterback, a clean pocket and pass catchers that can move the chains because when Dalton is forced to go vertical - usually to Green (though he has thrown at rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on occasion) - the results are less than stellar. In 29 targets over twenty yards down the field, Dalton is a miserable 8 for 29 - but when he runs the short to intermediate game, he is 86 of 119 for a more competent 72% completion average.
In short, the talent on this offense is held back by Dalton's lack of arm strength and accuracy down the field and by Jay Gruden's lack of confidence in his signal caller to that end - but if they maximize what the offense does well within their limitations, they could win the time of possession battle by ramming the ball down the Patriots' throats to set up Green over the top, slot receiver Marvin Jones and possession receiver Mohamed Sanu getting loose underneath and behind the linebackers, or the tight ends up the seam.
Not possessing blazing speed, Green earns his bones running razor sharp routes and winning jump balls - attacks the ball at the high point and rarely looses those battles. His athleticism is through the roof and has a lethal combination of natural height, mad hops and hands made out of flypaper - and is pure smooth hell after the catch...
...because once he gets his hands on the ball and comes back to earth, he is as elusive in open space as any receiver in the league - so he has the ability to break long gainers off of shorter tosses.
Dalton's secondary targets have been his tight ends, a pair of big seam stretching humanoids in 4th year pro Jermaine Gresham and rookie Tyler Eifert - which could turn out to be one of the better combos in football. Eifert makes many of his plays in the air, adjusting well to the ball in flight, while Gresham is purely physical but makes the difficult catch and drags folks for extra yardage.
Perhaps what has hurt Dalton and the Bengals most of all this season is the absence of slot receiver Andrew Hawkins, a fan favorite dubbed "Baby Hawk" who suffered a serious ankle injury in the offseason - his 4.3 speed and reliable hands good for 51 catches last season. Jones has seen limited action in his stead and Sanu is decent compliment to Green as a possession receiver...
...but the offense revolves around the two tight end, one running back sets of Gresham, Eifert and Bernard with Green going vertical and Sanu horizontal, and appears to be perfectly suited to test the Patriots on all three levels of their defense.
New England lost defensive tackle Vince Wilfork early in Sunday night's win over the Falcons to a torn achilles tendon and he will miss the rest of the season, but Atlanta failed to take advantage of undersized backup Joe Vellano (If 6' 2", 310 pounds can rightfully be called undersized) as they fell behind the Patriots and had to start going over the top of the defense...
...and with Ryan, the Falcons were able to take advantage of a couple of grievous errors on the part of the Patriots, and were just one Aqib Talib defended pass in the end zone away from tying a game that they had trailed by 17 points with just six minutes remaining.
But, as pointed out, Dalton is no Matt Ryan so it is essential for the Bengals to run the ball and to get the ball to their backs and tight ends in the pattern to control the clock and limit the number of possessions for Tom Brady and the New England offense.
How New England prevents this from happening starts with the thought that the Patriots have no one on the roster - nor the practice squad for that matter - that can take on the role that Wilfork played. That's gone. The ability to redirect plays by presence alone and to reestablish the line of scrimmage two to three yards deep in the opponent's backfield is gone, and Bill Belichick knows this.
He also knows that since he can't field a traditional base defense until he knows what his options are, the next best thing is to get all of your best athletes on the field in some sort of cohesive manner and turn them loose.
The need to stop the run is omnipresent, and to do this as well as the ability to pressure the quarterback with a three man rush is the key to matching up with Cincinnati's "12 Personnel" package - enabling Belichick to get all of his best athletes on the field at the same time and take away every option he has underneath - forcing Dalton to do what he can't consistently, which is throwing the deep ball.
It sounds weird, forcing the ball in the direction of the Bengals' most dynamic weapon in Green, but in successfully shutting down Dalton's comfort zones, the flats and the intermediate seam, it leaves Cincinnati one dimensional and it comes down the Patriots' corners abilities to win one on one - and if they were successful against Ryan and his targets in Jones and White, it should work here, in theory.
The Big Nickle defense (4-2-5 or 3-3-5) has been the preferred deterrent to offenses with two able pass catching tight ends occupying the underneath and intermediate zones while being able to account for a running back plus a couple of split ends - starting with a three man front and one downhill thumping linebacker with gap responsibility...
...bringing a safety up in the box to take one of the tight ends while the two outside 'backers key on the other tight end and the running back - the corners split the responsibility for the vertical threat and the possession receiver, and of course the slot corner on the slot and a single high safety over the top.
There's just too many weapons to take them all away, so the Patriots defense is going to have to pick their poison and take away as much as they can and make plays on the rest.
That said, who covers whom? It's easy enough to assume that Talib and Alfonzo Dennard will split the responsibility for Green and Sanu as they did Jones and White last Sunday, and that Kyle Arrington will be a key player underneath, both on Marvin Jones and also in run support - and the discipline of the defensive ends play a role in blowing up the flats...
...but the Bengals' tight ends present issues that will be difficult for the Patriots to overcome with base personnel. That's where the big nickle safety comes into play - and where Belichick is going to have to throw caution to the wind and insert his rookie defenders into the fire and hope they don't get burned.
He really has no choice. Dont'a Hightower is their best cover 'backer, but he had some serious issues trying to stay with Gonzalez in Atlanta, so in having choices this week, he'll probably be assigned to the slower but more physical Gresham and the faster and more athletic Eifert will most likely see a combination of coverages involving linebackers and safeties.
Patriots' fans should expect to see the rookie defenders on the field much of the time, as the team tries to compensate for their liabilities in matching up with the Bengals' skill players - and this game, plus next week's contest against the Saints are why New England spent draft picks on the likes of hybrids like Jamie Collins and Duron Harmon, to provide an element of athleticism to be able to evolve into what they need to be...
...and this week - and probably next, as well - they need the Big Nickle.
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