The New England Patriots have lots of rookies on their 53 man roster - 13 to be exact, over half of them undrafted free agents - and so the only way of us knowing exactly what they bring to the field as far as the game plan is concerned is a matter of some mystery to the coaching staff as well.
Sure, they may know what they hope happens when one of these wet-behind-the-ears diaper dandies is plugged into the formation in a certain situations, but they never really know for sure...
...but then again, neither will the Buffalo Bills when the two teams square off at Ralph Wilson Stadium just outside of Buffalo on Sunday afternoon - so that makes both teams even in that respect, but that's about all that's similar between the two teams.
The sports books aren't giving the Patriots much love, though, considering that they are facing a hobbled rookie quarterback throwing to Stevie Johnson's mouth and a couple of rookie receivers while 14th year veteran and certain Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady is going to be slinging hash all over an injury decimated Bills' secondary...
...the seven and a half point spread minuscule for that type of scenario, which suggests that the bookies want a look at New England's young receiving corps before taking any big chances - either that or they don't have a lot of faith in the Patriots overhaul of the pass catching units as a whole.
Or it could be the fact that 40% of New England's roster is made up of rookies and sophomores, making them the 7th youngest team in the league - and many have the team in a fight for it's life to secure a playoff berth, but many more still list the Patriots still among the league's elite contenders...
...and on Sunday afternoon at around 4:20, we should have a pretty good idea of which group of people are correct - but it's probably best to assume that the Bills have some matchup deficiencies and as they are starting a rookie at the most important position on the field, it might not be a true gauge of how good the Patriots might be.
Unless they lose, of course. Then we'll know exactly how good they are.
When the Bills have the ball, rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel provides and interesting set of intangibles and has a set of running backs that can take some of the heat off of him that the Patriots are sure to bring.
A big kid, Manuel is a raw passer, and at Florida State was able to get away with being a risk-taking gunslinger - perhaps too much at times as Manuel could be very loose with the ball, throwing eight picks and putting the ball on the ground nine times.
He has every bit an NFL calibre arm and can make every throw, and they are a bit like Ryan Mallett's typical throw - cruise missle - and shows good accuracy down the field, more so with the intermediate routes - but also tends to become skittish in the pocket and will tuck the ball and run if his first read is covered...
...so it is essential for the Patriots defensive ends to set an edge so that when Manuel gets a Tommy Kelly or Brandon Spikes or Dont'a Hightower in his face and he tries to utilize his Roethlisberger-type mobility and escapability, he'll either have to try to spin out of the back of the pocket and roll to the wing or run right into the teeth of the linebackers.
If allowed to escape or if he gets to the wing on a designed rollout or bootleg, the onus falls to the outside linebackers to contain him. He becomes dangerous if allowed to set his feet and square his shoulders on a play outside of the pocket, his short to intermediate throws tend to be accurate enough for him to cause issues throughout a defense.
But if rushed, he has a tendency to badly underthrow balls, which is an issue if his deep runners are taken away consistently and he just starts looking underneath, so routes can be undercut in an attempt to head the other way with a gift.
The game plan should be to pressure him from his right and from straight up the gut, as he will force throws or try to escape to the back side - so though they may not get any sacks, Rob Ninkovich and Kelly will be on the spot to hound Manuel and pressure him into the blind side rush of Jones.
The edge-setting efforts of the ends will also come into play when the Bills run the ball, and the same defensive theory applies to Buffalo's talented running backs as it does to Manuel: set the edge and funnel everything inside, where the Patriots' big bodies can shut them down.
Easier said than done against the slashing power running of C. J. Spiller who can break off sick runs through the smallest of creases...which he tried to do on a goal line run last season in Buffalo and was met violently by Brandon Spikes, fumbling the ball and turning the tide of the ball game - Spikes filling the gap an essential intangible to New England's success stopping the run.
Stopping the run is not a new theory, of course, and it's a nuance that will be included in just about every game plan for the Patriots this season - but it remains to be seen if the Patriots' lack of depth in the middle of the defensive line comes into play, because if the Buffalo running game can find seams in the middle of the line, it opens up the entire field for a dual threat like Manuel.
Tom Brady is not a dual threat, but has to be licking his chops at the prospect of facing a Buffalo secondary that is in pieces, but the psychology here is that the Bills don't plan on giving the 14th year veteran much time to throw the ball, particularly from the inside where the Bills' defensive line will test the right side of New England's offensive line...
...so it is important for all of Brady's targets to win the battles off the line and separate quickly. Receivers Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins and tight end Zach Sudfeld have all demonstrated their ability to do just that in the preseason, and if it carries over Brady will be able to pick the Bills' secondary apart.
Of course, the golden rule for defense is to first stop the run, and the Bills have a decided advantage in this area with the Patriots short on tight end depth with Rob Gronkowski being declared inactive for this game, so it is imperative that Michael Hoomanawanui gain leverage as an inline blocker, and the Patriots may also use H-back James Develin in the same capacity.
New England can reverse the Buffalo advantage by establishing the power running game and also by spreading out the formation and getting as many receivers into the pattern as possible which, again, leads into the necessity for the receivers to win off the line and create space.
This can not be overstated, nor can the need for the backs to get Brady in as many second and short situations as possible to work with, because Brady is absolutely terrorizes defenses with such an advantage.
Shane Vereen is the key to this scenario, as he will line up all over the formation, and will have a linebacker on him in the pattern, or a nickle safety at the very most, and with the Buffalo secondary a skeleton crew, he can create havoc simply by Brady moving him around to take advantage of the matchups for him...
...Boyce and Sudfeld as well, as all three will challenge the seam while Amendola and Edelman occupy the under routes and Thompkins has his way all over the field with whomever is left to cover him.
In the end, given Buffalo's health issues in the secondary and the weapons that Brady has at his disposal, the Patriots should be able to overwhelm the Bills defense with sheer numbers.
There are many unknowns at play in this game, and even more so than in a typical opener, given the fact of New England's youth movement and Buffalo's new coach, new system and new quarterback - So this game may come down to something as simple, yet relevant, as experience.
Advantage New England by a score of 31-13.
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