Thursday, September 26, 2013

New England Patriots on Paper: Wounded Falcons still dangerous

When the New England Patriots made Dont'a Hightower the 25th player selected in the first round of last year's NFL Draft, he came with a skill set unique to someone his size - and Sunday night's game against the Atlanta Falcons presents a match up issue for which his size and skill were chosen at such a lofty juncture.

Same reason that Patriots' coach Bill Belichick acquired cornerback Aqib Talib in a trade deadline deal last season, and the same reason why he took a flier on cop puncher Alfonzo Dennard to finish out a supurb 2012 draft class - because these players flash the one-on-one aptitude that allows Belichick to create game plans to shut down an offenses top weapons.

In the Falcons, Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia are tasked with formulating a defensive game plan to account for a trio of top shelf wide receivers, an aging yet still gracefully dangerous tight end and one of the coolest and most talented pocket quarterbacks in the game - but taking these threats away from Falcons coach Mike Smith is really just as simple as not allowing the plays to develop...

...and to take advantage of the obvious match up advantages that the Patriots hold over the Falcons, the line of scrimmage is exactly where to start.

The Falcons offensive line is similar in scheme as to what the Patriots faced last season against the Houston Texans - a zone blocking front that lets the defensive dictate the direction of the blocks by mirroring the defensive linemen and then sealing them out of the play - in theory. 

But injuries and attrition have robbed Atlanta of talent and ability to execute the scheme as effective as it needs to be, and the Patriots must be prepared to take advantage of it.

The bookend tackles are rated among the worst in football in protecting the quarterback, but some of that can be attributed to injury.  Sam Baker teams with left guard Justin Blaylock to make up an adequate blindside, but Baker's foot and knee injuries actually kept him inactive for last week's loss to the Dolphins and his mobility bears watching. 

Baker did not participate in practice on Wednesday, but attended Thursday's workout on a limited basis.  If he can't go the onus falls to veteran swing tackle Jeremy Trueblood, who got the start last week subbing for starting right tackle Lamar Holmes, who himself was the backup to now-injured Mike Johnson at the start of the season.

So with Baker listed as limited on the practice participation reports, along with right guard Garrett Reynolds and Center Peter Konz - both nursing knee issues - if you add all of this together, Blaylock is the only healthy lineman among the Falcons starters.

This certainly doesn't mean that the Falcons can't overcome these obstacles, just that it's up to the Patriots to make the most of them by not getting sucked into the zone blocking trap and make the offensive linemen's jobs easier than it should be.

In the running game, The Falcons are also without hamstrung featured back Steven Jackson, replaced in the backfield by 235 pound load Jason Snelling, whose vision and decisive cuts are perfect for the zone blocking scheme. Snelling hits the hole hard between the tackles, and averages 5.5 yards per carry in very limited attempts while 3rd down back Jacquizz Rodgers averages 3 yards and a cloud of dust.

That said, the Falcons are still an abysmal running team, coming in 27th among NFL teams in rushing offense, but that's just until you consider that the backs are used extensively in the screen game as an extension of the running game - where Snelling has been particularly effective, running folks over for an average of over eleven yards per touch.

Rodgers is greased lightning when he catches the screen in stride and has video game-like moves in space to spring free, but the screen game is hardly limited to getting the ball to the backs in space, as wide receiver Julio Jones is just as apt to handle a screen as he is to snare a deep ball - and either way is just as dangerous. 

Obviously, the Falcons rely heavily on the passing game with so many weapons to choose from in the receiving corps - Jones has 4.3 speed, hands like flypaper and a serious commitment to his craft - a pro's pro, who is as durable as he is dependable which makes him the number one target that Belichick will try to shut down.

At 6' 3" and 220 pounds, Jones has incredible body control and mad hops, setting himself apart from most other talent at the position - last week Belichick gave the assignment of the 6' 5" Vincent Jackson to Aqib Talib, and the results were mixed but overall the Patriots' best corner got the best of Jackson, which is pretty much all anyone could have expected.  But Jones is in another atmosphere - rarefied air, if you will.

How rare he is in this contest depends on a couple of factors, the first of which is whether or not the Falcons beat up offensive line can give Ryan enough time to find Jones downfield. To do so, Atlanta may have to sacrifice another of their weapons to help out the line in pass protection.

Tony Gonzalez' on field production has been severely limited due to having to be kept out of the pattern and employed as an inline tight end to help in pass protection.  He's managed to sneak out into the underneath patterns and in the red zone for just 11 catches and a score in three games, and it's hard to imagine that the Patriots will allow him any more freedom than any of the Falcons' previous three opponents.

This is Hightower's fit in the game plan.  The best of New England's cover 'backers, he should be keyed on Gonzalez - and has the athleticism to stay with the 37 year old perennial pro bowl selection in the pattern, provided he gets the opportunity to slide out.

New England figures to be in the nickle sub package for most of the game, and it wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility that we see a combination of different coverages on Gonzalez, even seeing safety Duron Harmon make an appearance or two as the big nickle.

The Patriots' defensive line should have their way with Atlanta's big uglies, but have to be careful not to give themselves up too early on the screen and to not be so aggressive as to get pushed clean out of the play.

Since the Falcons' running game is less than imposing and the passing game is their bread and butter, it gives New England the opportunity to run primarily with their rush sub, with Vince Wilfork and Chandler Jones serving as tackles in order to get rookie Michael Buchanan in at right end to work against Baker and his bad knee and foot, while Rob Ninkovich deals with Holmes and probably a chip or two from Gonzalez.

The manner in which the Falcons use their screen game will have the same effect on the rush as would the play action, which limits how aggressive Jones, Buchanan and Ninkovich can be, lest they be easily redirected out of the play, leaving the flat exposed

Of course, while the Patriots are playing in their base 4-3 defensive tackle Tommy Kelly should be able to take advantage of the guard/center combination of Blaylock and the hobbled Konz opening a blitzing lane for Brandon Spikes.

At linebacker, the nickle scheme will probably preclude Spikes, his impact limited to short yardage situations and in blitz packages - or if the Falcons are able to build a lead and take it into the 4th quarter, which is a scenario that New England would be best served to avoid.

The worst case scenario for the secondary is that the pass rush can't get to Ryan and the ends can't stay disciplined to set the edge, allowing Ryan to Target Jones, Roddy White or Harry Douglas downfield.

There are two schools of thought as to the Patriots coverage on the speedy Jones.  First, Aqib Talib has provided solid coverage on both Stevie Johnson of the Bills and Vincent Jackson of the Bucs, so he may get the call here again - but it could also fall to Dennard handling the assignment with a safety over the top while Talib deals with a hobbled White...

...or Belichick could run a Cover 2 with the corners in man and the safeties each covering half of the field deep - or a combination of all of the above.  With White being less than 100% with a bum ankle and Douglas a fumbling machine - nine touches, two fumbles - Belichick has the athletes to shut the passing game down.

However New England chooses to defend them, they're catching the Falcons precariously short-handed and very wounded - not as bad as the Patriots themselves as far as the pass catchers are concerned, but the offensive line is hanging on by a thread, just one injury away from being three layers into their depth chart...

...But Smith's warriors still found a way to stay in the two games that they've lost despite injury, just a play or two short of paydirt - and it's almost not fair with the Patriots' defense being reasonably healthy and very large and fast, but as long as Matt Ryan is taking the snaps and Julio Jones can fly, the Falcons will always have hope, if not a winning record.

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