We're supposed to be moving on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it's hard to do.
The New England Patriots are 2-0, coming off of a back door-type win in which Bill Belichick's charges were dominated in just about every statistical category there is and punked by the big bad New York Jets along both sides of the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots could neither run the ball nor stop the Jets from running it - but in the end, the lone statistical victory for the hometown team was turnover ratio, and that was enough. Barely.
There is but one solitary reason why the New England Patriots are undefeated going into this Sunday's game against the coach Greg Schiano's Buccaneers and that the New York Jets are 1-1 heading into their game with the Buffalo Bills - and it's not due to the Patriots' lines generating any push in the running game or time of possession or even the positive turnover ratio.
Last Thursday night, Rex Ryan had the Patriots defense right where he wanted them, or at least right where a normal head coach would want them - ripping off big chunks of yardage right into the teeth of the front seven, the New England defensive line being pushed back on their heels and grasping at anything in a white jersey...
...and then, he didn't.
Down 13-10 and with the entire 4th quarter to go, the Jets' play calling turned it's focus from punching the Patriots' front seven in the mouth to becoming aggressive in the passing game and putting the game on the arm of their rookie quarterback - three interceptions and one wicked beating later and the Patriots were 2-0 because they were able to close the rookie down and steal the game from the Jets.
Yes, steal the game. The only reason that the Jets' lost that game is that they inexplicably scaled back stuffing the football down the New England defense's collective throat, trading an obscene 5.7 yards per carry for three interceptions.
Guess Woody Hayes was right when he said that there's only three things that can happen when you throw the football, and two of them are bad. Geno Smith experienced both in abundance in a train wreck of a final Period that should have never happened.
But it did, so the Patriots are undefeated and hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their big run blocking interior line and a running back nicknamed "Muscle Hamster" - and if the Patriots want to come out of this game 3-0, they'd better fortify the middle of their defensive line, or just hope that Schiano is as clueless as Ryan...
...or simply start the game in the nickle and stick to it - because in today's NFL, if you can't defend the run in your sub packages, your not going to win many games - if any at all.
On opening day, New England was in it's sub defenses for all but two snaps, the likes of Kyle Arrington and Steve Gregory lending a hand in run support and shutting down Buffalo's C. J. Spiller - but on Thursday night on a short week of walk through practices, the Patriots went with a heavier dose of vanilla base 4-3 and got trampled.
Isn't that the opposite of what is supposed to happen?
Yes, but being in the 4-2-5 nickle allows New England to get most of their best athletes on the field at the same time: Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower are the linebackers, Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard and Kyle Arrington are the corners - and of course Devin McCourty is the free safety, teaming with Gregory as the strong. This is a strong "back seven" with speed and power, and all are good to excellent in run support.
The interior of the Patriots' defensive line will receive a boost as newly signed tackle Chris Jones will make his Patriots' debut in a reserve role along with Joe Vellano, who was actually a rare bright spot in the run defense last Thursday and is starting to look the part. Jones has similar size to Vellano and expereince against the Tampa offense as the Bucs are the team that made him available to Belichick by releasing him last week.
So he knows how pushy the Buccaneers offensive line can be in the running game, particularly if left guard Carl Nicks is cleared to play after dealing with a nasty staph infection and missing the first two games of the season. When healthy, he and Davin Joseph form perhaps the best set of road grading guards in the league - and that's who demure running back Doug Martin hides behind, waiting for a hole to scurry through.
Martin is powerfully built and runs between the tackles effectively despite - or maybe because of - his compact frame. Many Patriots' defenders spoke this week about not wanting to get into a game of hide-and-seek with the 5' 9", 225 pound "Muscle Hamster", who will float behind his bigs waiting for them to open a seam, then explode around them with with his quick acceleration and 4.45 speed.
Assuming that the Patriots can hold Martin and the running game in check like they did Spiller - which should be their top priority - the "Back Seven" will still have their hands full with a triple threat at receiver. But what it all comes down to in this scenario is whether or not Tampa's shaky set of bookend tackles can keep the Patriots suddenly fierce pass rush off of quarterback Josh Freeman long enough to find one of his plus-sized receivers.
In sharp contrast to the diminutive Martin, the Buccaneers' pass catchers are big. Really big, and really fast and really tough. Vincent Jackson gets the headlines, but the Buccaneers' are deep with vertical threat Mike Williams and Kevin Ogletree split out wide...
...With Jackson being more of a scrapper despite having 4.4 speed, one would think that he should see a steady dose of Aqib Talib on Sunday afternoon, as the Patriots attempt to counter his physical nature, particularly off the line - though rookie Logan Ryan is New England's most physical corner. Schiano moves Jackson all over the formation, so he may see Ryan or even Arrington try their hand at covering him when Schiano moves him to the slot.
Williams isn't as fast as Jackson, but he seems to be more athletic and can get behind a secondary and may require a double team, or at least a safety over the top. Former Cowboy Ogletree offers a hybrid of both, as he has some speed and is physical off the line, but nowhere near the size of the other two and he will probably see most of his snaps as a flanker or in the slot.
The Buccaneers don't seen to use their tight ends for much other than inline blocking, but when one of their stable comes off the line and into the pattern, it's Hightower's lot to deal with him. A man Hightower's size isn't supposed to move like he does, not have the agility to cover anybody in the pattern, but at 6' 3" and 270 pounds, the Alabama product can - and does it much better than he did in his rookie campaign.
With the athletes that the Patriots can field in the nickle one could even expect to make a rare Jamie Collins sighting in this scenario - especially since Tampa hasn't put a premium on targeting their tight ends in the pattern, one can reasonably expect to see them contain Martin and reach Freeman - which normally can be countered by the underneath stuff or getting the ball out into the flat to Martin, which is another reason to run in the nickle sub.
The weapons that Tampa have should be enough to scare any defense - but as long as Freeman continues to pout and lose focus over Schiano being a big meanie to him, and as long as his pass protection keeps leaking, the offense will never have enough time to get the ball downfield, especially if the Patriots' defensive ends pick up where they left off against the Jets
The rush sub package for New England is potent despite thin depth. Michael Buchanan has been the steal of the draft thus far and provides a like skill set to Chandler Jones. The bulked up Jones has been finding success both inside and out, but when he moves inside it offers Buchanan the opportunity to rush from his natural end position...
...and when coupled with Rob Ninkovich setting the edge and pressuring the quarterback from the strong side, and Tommy Kelly getting after it up the middle, there's actually plenty to like about the New England pass rush - particularly if they remain disciplined and stay in their lanes to prevent Martin or Freeman a delayed draw.
Freeman is not as big a threat to tuck the ball and run with it as either E. J. Manuel or Geno Smith were, but that doesn't mean he's not mobile enough to find a seam and take off when the pressure gets too close.
But none of this matters if the Patriots can't stop the straight-up run.
First and foremost, Tampa has to run the ball to be successful. Even if Martin isn't ripping off 5 or 6 yards a pop like he did against the Saints last week - and like the Jets did to the Patriots - if he can gain enough to give Freeman a manageable 3rd down with the big receivers that he has at his disposal, the Buccaneers are capable of scoring enough points to win this game...
...so the last thing the Patriots want to do is to give up the run and let Freeman get the offense in any sort of groove, because putting your players in position to fail and playing into the opposition's hands is what Rex Ryan does, not Bill Belichick.
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