Friday, August 30, 2013

New England Patriots final 53 man roster projection

"We go to camp with 90 guys and we go to 53 so we know that we’re going to have to tell 37 people that they can’t be on the team. That’s the math. It’s always hard when guys work hard, do everything you ask them to do, train hard, put forth all the effort they can put forth and you still have to tell 37 guys that they can’t be a part of the team this year. It’s always a tough thing."
Buchanan could prove to be the steal of the 2013 draft

And what coach Bill Belichick doesn't even bother mentioning is that making the final cut doesn't always mean the roster spot is secure.  Many teams have to make tough cuts, and some good players in need positions for the Patriots could find their way to Foxboro, sending another player packing.

The people who write about the Patriots think they should know who is going to make the team, but with Bill Belichick calling the shots, the smart money says that we don't know squat.  Keeping that in mind...

Quarterbacks (2):

Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett

Conspicuously absent from this list is Tim Tebow, and if the Patriots still want a third quarterback, chances are very good that the magnificent athlete without a true position will be available on the market if and when Bill Belichick beckons - is there another NFL team that's going to pick him up and sacrifice a roster spot?

Doubtful, even though he was better in the preseason finale, that elevated him to a level still below that of an average NFL quarterback - and while he has a skill set that is decidedly different from anyone else, it's just to difficult to imagine saving a roster spot for him.

He has linebacker size, perhaps he should give that a shot, because to sacrifice what could be a decent career at another position just for the sake of being able to claim that he's a quarterback is a waste of an incredible athlete that needs to be on the field somewhere - if not, he's smart as a whip and has a lot of respect from coaches and players alike, why not try coaching?

And, oh yeah, Tom Brady looks better than ever and Ryan Mallett actually looks like a quarterback once he gets warmed up.  Guess we'll have to keep them on the list.

Running Backs (5):

Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
LeGarrette Blount
George Winn
James Develin

The free agent signing of Leon Washington was meant to add another dynamic to a special teams unit that needed help in coverage, not necessarily returns.  The signing never made sense in that he wasn't likely to see the field  in any capacity other than as a kick returner.  These roster spots have value, and there are guys that deserve to make this team that won't if players like Washington and Ebner end up on the roster.

That said, they're not on this one - and Washington's place on the roster taken by the rookie Winn, who is an exceptional special teamer and a downhill runner who punishes folks between the tackles.

Blount has been a refreshing addition to the roster and adds real value and a grinding change up to Ridley's explosive style, plus he returns kicks.  Vereen is a dangerous third down back that Brady will move around to get him matched up on linebackers and safeties in the passing game.

Develin makes the team as an H-back, making the release of Fells assured.


Receivers (7):

Aaron Dobson
Josh Boyce
Danny Amendola
Matthew Slater (ST)
Julian Edelman
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quentin Sims

Matthew Slater is on this roster, pretty much solely as a special teamer.  It chews up a roster spot, but Slater is so good that he's a perpetual pro bowl selection and brings the wood every single time down the field - he's earned this roster spot with his quality play and durability.

Amendola comes as advertised, which is both good and bad if his current injury is a harbinger of things to come, while Edelman doesn't look fully healed but is giving full effort.  Rookies Thompkins, Dobson and Boyce will be the core of the receiving unit if Amendola and Edelman continue their fragile ways.

Thompkins is going to be a difference maker, because what he can't catch, he draws pass interference penalties.  Incredible value from an undrafted free agent.

Dobson is a work in progress, but the upside is tremendous while we finally got to see Boyce's hands and 4.34 speed in the final preseason game.  Sims is a guy that is raw, but has tremendous size and sticky fingers - and will never make it through waivers, hence a spot on the roster.


Tight Ends (3):

Rob Gronkowski
Michael Hoomanawanui
Zach Sudfeld

A mid-September target date for Gronkowski's return is tantalizing enough for the Patriots to put him on the active roster instead of starting the season on the PUP list.  The Patriots are a different offense with Rob Gronkowski on the field and leaving him off the PUP leaves him free to participate in practices in anticipation of a week 3 or 4 return.

Hoomanawanui returns in his Hback role from last season.  Sudfeld is an undrafted free agent steal provided he stays healthy and is really a very large wide receiver.


Offensive Linemen (8):

Nate Solder
Logan Mankins
Ryan Wendell
Marcus Cannon
Sebastian Vollmer
Will Svitek
Dan Connolly
Matt Stankiewitch


Marcus Cannon completes an offensive line which ranks among the best in football when he mans the right guard position, and he should be ready for the regular season.  Cannon also can swing to either tackle spot in a pinch, though Svitek has proven his versatility and was brought in solely for that purpose.

Stankiewitch makes the team as a versatile inline guard and backup center, reducing wear on Connolly if Wendell gets dinged up.

The team does have the luxury of being able to stash a couple of interior players on the practice squad if they so desire, and the tackles are well manned and backed up.


Specialists (3):

Stephen Gostkowski (K)
Zoltan Mesko (P)
Danny Aiken (LS)

Gostkowski wins the placekicking job by default, but his erratic performances have fans chewing their fingernails.  Mesko wins the punter's job after being pushed in camp by rookie upstart Ryan Allen.  Some thought Mesko would become a financial casualty, but dependability is more important than a few hundred thousand dollars.

Long snapper has long been a position that many wish has more versatility to it, but it is a specialty.  Gostkowski has often spoken on the importance of cohesion and a long snapper's ability to get the ball back to the holder with the laces just right to place the ball down and showing him the fat part of the ball, and with Mesko playing the part of holder, this trio has been together for a few years now - no sense in breaking them up.


Defensive Tackles (4):

Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Marcus Forston
Joe Vellano

All the hype surrounding Armond Armstead as a flex tackle is going to have to wait, as the team has placed him on the PUP list, from which he will be eligible to return to the roster after week 6. Wilfork is the best tackle in the NFL and Kelly is ripping right past the offensive linemen in pass rushing drills.  Joe Vellano has been a pleasant surprise and is a big man with athleticism in the mold of Wilfork, though he has much work to do to get to that level.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that the team brings in a veteran tackle cut from another team at the deadline, So Vellano's spot is anything but secure. The team often employs a defensive end to the interior to get penetration, so ends with that ability like Justin Francis and Marcus Benard become more valuable to the team.


Defensive Ends (6):

Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Justin Francis
Marcus Benard
Michael Buchanan
Jermaine Cunningham


Veteran Marcus Benard seems to have regained his quickness that he flashed in Cleveland and can be a difference maker on passing downs,while Buchanan has emerged from the preseason as an absolute beast on the edge - rises from the status of "project" to gain a roster spot that hardly anyone thought he could produce this season.

He has clearly outplayed Jake Bequette, who ends up on the practice squad.

Jones looks to have also regained his form from early last season and Ninkovich is a rock on the left side. 
Benard and Francis double up at times as undersized rush tackles, which causes even more matchup problems for opposing offenses.  Jermaine Cunningham does as well, but he may end up starting the season on the IR with a designation to return.


Linebackers (6):

Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Dont'a Hightower
Dane Fletcher
Steve Beauharnais


The versatility of the defense is a direct result of the diversity of the linebacking corps.  Collins is a monstrous talent on the verge of exploding out of the gate and teamed with Fletcher and Bauharnais gives the team fast and athletic backups to the starting trio of Mayo, Spikes and Hightower.

Collins and Beauharnais are former safeties, and we saw both lined up at safety in spots during the preseason, which speaks to both athleticism and toughness - and their coverage abilities fill dual roles so that they could come on as the big nickle safety and spare the secondary that role.

Mayo and Hightower have been steady and Spikes is flying all over the field - so this is the deepest group on the defense - and could actually mean that we'll see more 3-4 base alignments to get the best athletes on the team onto the field.

Hightower and Collins will also be used in the capacity of defensive ends, adding to that group's numbers as well.


Corners (5):

Aqib Talib
Alfonzo Dennard
Logan Ryan
Kyle Arrington
Marquice Cole


Dennard's legal situation has to be driving Belichick crazy, his health seeming to be a matter of concern as well - and perhaps the two are intertwined, but with his court dates in October, the situation is fluid and Belichick may be forced to find a way to shelve Dennard for the time being - we'll kinow more about his situation a few days before the opener.

Talib is solid and has taken the leadership reigns.  If Dennard is out for any extended time, then the team must make a decision about who mans the corner opposite Talib.  Arrington is far batter in the slot than on the outside and is a force against the run so he's best left in that role, and that leaves rookie Logan Ryan with the job

Ryan is a fierce competitor and his aggressiveness will get him in trouble from time to time, but with some experience, he is a star waiting to be born..

Marquice Cole is reliable in spot duty and can also play some safety is events warrant.  He has shown strong ball skills all preseason and looks improved from 2012. late arrival Justin Green finds his way onto the practice squad.


Safeties (4):

Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Steve Gregory
Tavon Wilson

Tavon Wilson makes the roster by default but veteran Adrian Wilson is at the end of the line as he just doesn't have the wheels any longer.  Both are more along the lines of linebackers, which left them to spot duty on the back end.  Tavon continues to take bad angles to the ball but he can fill in a pinch and is a core special teamer - he will play mostly as a nickle safety

Don't be surprised if the team keeps a close eye on the waiver wire for either a veteran safety or corner, or both.

McCourty can be pro bowl quality and anchors the last line of defense, while Steve Gregory makes the team as a swing safety.  Harmon has surprised many with his sense of ownership of the back end and has a quick grasp of the concept.  In a prefect world, he would start as the strong safety and allow the team coverage versatility as he has tremendous ball skills and range.


Practice Squad:
Jake Bequette DE
Kanorris Davis SS
Chris McDonald G
Justin Green CB
Scott Vallone DT
Luke Patterson G
Gilbert Pena DT


PUP list (designated to return):

Mark Harrison WR
Armond Armstead (NFI)

Injured Reserve:

Marcus Zusevics G
Corey Grissom DT

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