Sunday, July 21, 2013

Patriots Camp Preview - Defensive Secondary

Being Ras-I Dowling is painful.

It's got to be right?  Not only has he landed on the New England Patriots' Injured Reserved list both of his years with the team, he has also been plagued with injuries dating back to his junior year in High School, breaking his hand that year and suffering a knee injury as a Senior...
2013 may be Dowling's last chance to claim a roster spot.

...a variety of ailments limiting him early in college before fracturing an ankle which cost him over half of his Senior campaign, add to that his professional football mishaps - a hip that cost him all of his rookie year and a torn thigh muscle that took half of last year - and there is legitimate reason for doubt amongst the Foxboro Faithful.

Doubt that he will ever make an impact - but even when healthy Dowling has been used sparingly, so many feel that his 2013 season is his last chance to step up, stay healthy and finally grasp that potential that made him a second round draft pick - whether that happens or not is up to Dowling's fragility and his ability to grasp the scheme.

We've seen snippets of the potential.  A physical press corner with size and speed, he is at his best up at the line of scrimmage engaging the receiver with a shockingly heavy jam that actually can knock the pass catcher off of his intended route, and can stay in the hip pocket of even the fastest and most physical receiver...

...but in zone coverage he looks like a pedestrian dodging cars in a busy intersection - something that looked terrible in the Cover-3 that the Patriots run as their variation of the Big Nickle, the scheme requiring their corners to be adept at both man and zone responsibilities, switching between the two coverages as the offensive personnel and alignment dictates.

With the corners giving either a press or an off-man look, at the snap they both either meet the receivers and go man, or drop hard into an intermediate zone, with the high safety rolling to either side in support of the corner and with the linebackers covering the middle - but since the Cover-3 is easy for a quarterback to recognize, the Patriots sometimes mix it up, pressing one corner and dropping the other back into a zone...
Arrington

This is where Dowling is insufficient - or at least would be if he could stay on the field - and the primary reason why Kyle Arrington replaced Dowling after the first game last season.  For Dowling to be successful, he has to dictate the action and make his man move to the outside where he can use his length to shield the receiver from the ball and get inside position...

...which he finds hard to accomplish in off-man or zone.  In laying off the receiver he still cheats outside, the receiver easily able to get the inside position on him - and not being the best tackler in the world - well, you see the quandary.

The opposite is true for Arrington.  When he can keep the action in front of him he has the fluidity to react to the play and is a solid tackler.  Where Arrington got in trouble last season was trying to cover taller receivers on the outside, but had a tendency to lose the receiver if he looked back for the ball - resulting in really bad looking long-gainers or pass interference penalties.

But a curious thing always seems to happen when Dowling goes down - some unknown or forgotten player buried on the depth chart steps up and makes a name for himself.
McCourty

In his rookie season of 2011, the Patriots had Dowling pegged at right corner opposite 2nd year man Devin McCourty - which lasted all of a game and a half as he tore hip labrum, opening the door for 2010 starter Kyle Arrington to enjoy his finest pro season, leading the NFL in interceptions while McCourty struggled with injuries.

Hopes were high last season as Dowling made it through camp and regained his starting position, only to struggle badly in the Cover-3 and eventually again be replaced by Arrington, who was serving from the nickelback slot...
Dennard

...but Arrington struggled as well and Dowling's play was still unremarkable as a nickleback, so when he tore a thigh muscle halfway into the season, the team - in desperation at this point - inserted rookie bad boy Alfonzo Dennard on the outside and sent Arrington back to the slot, seemingly willing to live with whatever the results were.

Dennard flashed enormous talent and effectiveness in the scheme, and a few weeks later the Patriots acquired former 1st round pick Aqib Talib from Tampa Bay in a trade deadline deal, and suddenly the secondary was strong.  Talib and Dennard were effective in either man or zone, and that freed up many options in coverage that had a trickle down effect with the rest of the unit, particularly with the pass rush which improved markedly once the secondary was stable.

McCourty moved back to free safety for good to become the over-the-top man and Arrington moved back inside to cover the slot, where he shined.
Ryan

So the question looms:  Is a Dowling injury the impetus to the discovery of a hidden gem?  If so, third round pick Logan Ryan will be setting the world on fire by week 8 - which may happen anyway.

With Dowling being a walking M*A*S*H unit and incumbent corner Dennard's availability in the hands of both a Lincoln, Nebraska judge and Roger Goodell, Ryan is the next in line to step up and claim the position opposite Talib.

Dennard is a steady package that shows far more smarts on the field than he does in his personal affairs - not spectacular at any one thing, but at least adequate in all - and you really can't ask much more from a number 2 corner...

...or can you?  2013 third round draft pick Ryan brings the best of the other three without most of their limitations - the aggressive press cover abilities of Dowling combined with the quick twitch and run support of Arrington and the steady workman like effort of Dennard all combined into one 5' 11" package of swagger and confidence, and a calmness that rivals Talib's.

Ryan looks like a slightly smaller version of Patriots' cornerman Aqib Talib in mannerisms and the way in which he carries himself - though Ryan is the more physical of the two and has much to learn yet. 

In fact, Ryan may be too physical and some of his film from Rutgers makes for cringe-worthy viewing for Patriots' fans after seeing their corners burned repeatedly early last season as they played the man and didn't bother looking back for the ball - but there's a difference. 

Other corners do this because they lose their guy and have to mug the receiver in order to prevent a big play.  Ryan does it because that ball is his and he's not giving it up without a fight.  As a result, Ryan gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar at times and will have to limit his mugging of receivers to the five yard envelope where contact is allowed, but once he does that the Patriots would have a pair of top press corners.

In contrast to the somewhat volatile situation at corner heading into camp, the safety positions are set with versatile depth galore.

After McCourty's injury-riddled and down year at corner in 2011, Belichick slid him to free safety, where his size, vision and speed give the Patriots' defensive staff confidence to play a more aggressive style than they have been able to in the recent past, and have the national media and fans alike are looking for a Pro Bowl breakthrough for McCourty in 2013.

The 2010 first round draft pick as a corner out of Rutgers is everything you want out of a centerfielder and is a lock at that position coming into camp, but a battle is emerging to back him up.
Gregory

Steve Gregory was brought into the fold as a free agent last season after spending the first four years of his career in San Diego.  A natural Free Safety, he was instead relegated to strong safety duties with the Chargers and again when he joined the Patriots.  He is much better as a centerfielder like McCourty, but faces a challenge for that spot with versatile third round selection Duron Harmon.
Harmon

Many scoffed when Belichick selected the unknown Harmon out of Rutgers, but one look at the skill set says everything you need to know.  Big enough to handle strong safety duties and rangy and fast enough to play centerfield, Harmon gives the defense a better all around athlete than Gregory and a superior special-teamer as well. 

Any kind of flash in camp will give Harmon a leg up in the battle to back up McCourty, while the Strong safety position is left in the capable hands of free agent Adrian Wilson and last year's second round pick Tavon (no relation) Wilson.
Adrian Wilson

In the Patriots' scheme, the strong safety is essentially a linebacker with strong cover skills - and both Wilsons have the skill set, though their style is as different as night and day.  Tavon is best suited as more of a coverage back, having experience at corner and both safety positions that had many wondering what his true position really was, something that Belichick tinkered with all season before settling him down as the nickel safety while Gregory handled the strong.
Tavon Wilson

But the team could be back to square one with the classic "tweener", the presence of Harmon giving the team potentially a better strong safety than Tavon, and his namesake Adrian having a big size and experience advantage over him as a big nickel safety.  Adrian also brings an attitude that will inspire the entire defense and a physicality that labels him an enforcer that strikes fear in receivers coming over the middle.

So Belichick's credo that you can never have enough defensive backs bodes well for Dowling and a serviceable talent in Marquis Cole in depth at corner, particularly if Dennard misses any time with his legal issues - but either Tavon Wilson or Steve Gregory will have to step up to claim a reserve spot among the safeties.

A starting secondary featuring Talib and either Dennard, Dowling or Ryan at the corners, Arrington in the slot and McCourty teamed with Adrian Wilson either straight up or in the Cover-3 is better than what this team has entered camp with in the recent past, but questions do remain...

...and it's up to one of the trio of corners to grasp the starting gig opposite Talib to put this secondary on the top shelf - and it could very well come down to Logan Ryan seizing an opportunity of circumstance should Dennard end up in the poke and Dowling in the infirmary.

Or he could just rise up and take it away from the other two, just like he does to opposing receivers.

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