Tuesday, July 30, 2013

New England Patriots 53 man roster (early) projection

As anyone who follows the New England Patriots' knows, it is pointless and often fruitless to try and project who is going to make their 53 man roster, yet here we are.

A few of the roster spots are being absorbed by players on the PUP list or the non-football injury list, and the projection is that they will be ready for the regular season - but if not, it changes the dynamics of the tight end positions and of the defensive line.

One curious thing that arises when projecting roster spots is that one starts looking at the value to the team of one player over another from different positions.  For example, is it better for the team to carry a third quarterback or an extra back or lineman?  How about an extra defensive back or an interior pass rusher?

These things will work themselves out through camp, as some players will unexpectedly surprise or disappoint and, as always, injuries play a key role...

...but as far as initial projections, this is just as good or just as bad as any other, and it will be fun to revisit this initial projection after final cuts are made in late August.

Quarterbacks (3):
Mallett


Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett
Tim Tebow

Really, what do you expect?  Brady is as tough, scrappy and durable as you'd want from any player, Mallett is an emerging gaggle of draft picks for the Patriots and Tebow is one of the best athletes on the team.

Running Backs (5):

Washington
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
Leon Washington
Brandon Bolden
LeGarrette Blount


A focal point on the offense as it returns pretty much intact from last season, when it was a top 5 unit on the NFL.  Washington has indicated that he hopes the team uses him for more than a kick returner.  Bolden and Legarrette Blount are in a battle to back up Ridley while Vereen is getting looks all over the formation.


Receivers (6):
Dobson and Boyce at the Symposium
Aaron Dobson
Josh Boyce
Danny Amendola
Matthew Slater (ST)
Julian Edelman
Kenbrell Thompkins

Dobson is the long-striding real deal and Boyce has a lot of professional polish to his game, and he's greased lightning.  Amendola is as advertised but after those three it's still a question mark.  If Edelman can ever get healthy he'll be on the roster, if not we could see Kenbrell Thompkins or Mark Harrison.  Aiken is having a fantastic camp.

Tight Ends (4):
Sudfeld
Rob Gronkowski (PUP)
Michael Hoomanawanui
Zach Sudfeld
Jake Ballard

For a group that had question marks galore, the tight end positions sure are shaping up well.  Hooman is showing devastating technique in Hback drills and Ballard showing separation, but Sudfeld is going to be the star of this unit until Gronkowski is ready to compete.  Guy has a different gear and good athleticism to take over where Hernandez left off.

Offensive Linemen (7):
Cannon
Nate Solder
Logan Mankins
Ryan Wendell
Marcus Cannon
Sebastian Vollmer
Will Svitek
Dan Connolly


Marcus Cannon deserves a starting nod at right guard, but he is such a valuable all-around lineman that the team may be best served to keep him as the top reserve.  Dan Connelly may be spending the year on the IR. Svitek is a very good swing tackle and Green is a veteran guard that has looked great with the second unit.

Specialists (3):

Stephen Gostkowski (K)
Zoltan Mesko (P)
Danny Aiken (LS)


Kelly
Defensive Tackles (4):

Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Marcus Forston
Joe Vellano

Some mystery revolves around Armstead and his infection, so it's uncertain how long it will take him to recover from surgery to remove it.  Wilfork is the best tackle in the NFL and Kelly is ripping right past the offensive linemen in pass rushing drills.  Vellano has been a pleasant surprise and is showing short area quickness to back up Wilfork.

Francis and Jones
Defensive Ends (5):

Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Justin Francis
Marcus Benard
Michael Buchanan

Veteran Marcus Benard seems to have regained his quickness that he flashed in Cleveland and could be the 3rd down rush specialist, and while rookie Buchanan is also impressing in camp, he seems to be a developmental project and a good choice for the practice squad.  Francis continues to improve while Jones and Ninkovich remain solid starters.

Linebackers (6):
Spikes
Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Dont'a Hightower
Dane Fletcher
Steve Beauharnais


A trio of athletic cover backers in Collins, Fletcher and Edds give this group a lot of flexibility while the starters remain solid.  Hightower is looking to show himself as a three down backer, but Spikes is still being pulled in passing situations.


Dowling
Corners (5):

Aqib Talib
Alfonzo Dennard
Logan Ryan
Kyle Arrington
Marquis Cole


Excellent camp for all involved this far, though Ryan has been pushed to the background by default.  Dowling was pressing for the starting gig opposite Talib, and his battle with Dennard had been one of the better battles in camp, but he's on the shelf again - which is not a good thing.  Arrington has the slot locked down unless Ryan starts to assert himself.

Safeties (5):
Adrian Wilson
Devin McCourty
Adrian Wilson
Duron Harmon
Steve Gregory
Tavon Wilson


McCourty is really the only known quantity, and even with the pickup of Adrian Wilson the group looks thin with Tavon Wilson having a miserable camp.  Harmon is starting assert himself and his versatility in being able to play either side makes him a valued member of the corps as a rookie.

Practice Squad:

Mark Harrison WR
Armond Armstead (NFI)
Kanorris Davis SS
George Winn RB
Kamar Aiken WR
Cory Grissom DT
Jake Bequette DE

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