Well, you shouldn't be because you were warned...and as we know, it's an exercise in futility to try and guess what Bill Belichick is going to do in a draft because he has a specific plan in mind and drafts players with that plan in mind...
...and with that being said, welcome to the Big Nickle defense.
Or should we say, "Welcome Back"?
Last year around this time, we were speculating that Bill's selection of Tavon Wilson coupled with that of Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower signaled the implementation of the Big Nickle defense - but along the way, injuries to the safety corps and the inability of the corners to lock down receivers shelved the plan for 2012...
...this in response to a league-wide trend that Belichick the innovator himself has created with his two-headed tight end monster that, when healthy, are the single most dangerous entity in the NFL. Separately, they are excellent tight ends with decidedly different skill sets - but together they are unstoppable.
And what Belichick started with physical freaks Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez as athletic threats down the seam and underneath the secondary comes with it's drawbacks, one of them is learning to defend it...but practicing against it every day was like giving an evil scientist a field full of lab rats and everything set up just the way he wants it.
The trend to big receivers is not new to the NFL, but when Belichick took it to the next level with Gronkowski and Hernandez he also knew that other teams would try to copy what he had accomplished, and that he needed to adapt to eventually combat the monster that he had just created - which means that he is far ahead of the curve...
...and what seemed like just a neurotic pipe dream in 2012 could be a reality this season as Bill Belichick's selections in the 2013 NFL Draft feed right back into the Big Nickle thinking and should have Patriots' fans very excited.
The Big Nickle defense is best described as organized chaos, and works best out of a 3-3-5 formation
that is dependent upon the players being hybrid in nature, utilizing a hybrid playbook - and there's no other team in the league that has been focusing on versatile defensive talent in both the draft and free agency for the past two years - and they've again hit the jackpot in Friday night's second and third rounds.
Whether your base is a 4-3 or a 3-4, the Big Nickle is always going to be a component.
The 3-3-5 requires a certain breed of athlete - intelligent. disciplined, mature...and violent - a field full of psychopaths that buy into a philosophy, work diligently to that end, getting caught up into meticulous study and film habits - then go home to their families to lead an average life. No glitz, no fanfare, just work and dinner with the wife and kids, maybe catch a movie...
...three down linemen, their hands in the dirt with with the ability to penetrate and disrupt running lanes or collapse the pocket, coupled a combination of three rush ends and linebackers and safeties that are athletic enough to stop the run, rotate into any zone coverage or blitz effectively - and a combination of five defensive backs that can handle different types of coverage calls without giving up a big play.
For this scheme, the Patriots were all set with defensive tackle, as they had every player they needed in house weeks before the draft, anchored by Vince Wilfork and names like Francis, Deaderick, Love and newcomers Tommy Kelly and Armond Armstead...with ends Chandler Jones, Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich in the picture as well, there is much versatility along the line to fit the scheme.
Entering the draft, we had speculated the need for a cover 'backer, a physical corner and perhaps a developmental safety that everyone would be scratching their heads over - ok, not the safety but as Belichick has said, you can never have too many defensive backs, nor linebackers, particularly in this formation...
...and they got those in Linebacker Jamie Collins in the second round and Rutgers corner Logan Ryan in the third - throw in the versatile tweener Duron Harmon and you have what is very close to a finished product.
The linebacker and hybrid safeties depth rotation now reads like a circa mid-70's street gang: Spikes, Hightower, Mayo, Fletcher, the volleyballs and Ebner - throw in Friday night's selection of Collins as an edge rusher with some coverage capabilities due to his experience at safety, with McCourty and strong/free hybrid safety Harmon mix-matching in centerfield and Belichick's plan comes into focus.
The alignment and this group of versatile athletes can disguise coverages and blitzes until after the snap, while still having six players with size in the box to defend the run. The athletic ability to run the Big Nickle has been three drafts in the making, and most of New England's defenders are young enough to ensure that attrition won't affect the continuity of the scheme...
...and the discipline instilled within the core veterans will trickle down to the rookies and they will acclimate as all the others have. The athletic ability and discipline to successfully run the 3-3-5 are limiting factors for most teams, but not the Patriots...not now, as Belichick's seemingly curious draft schematic is not as head-scratching when you consider the well oiled machine that he's been trying to build.
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